Recently, a piece of news in the crypto circle has sparked heated discussion—renowned analyst Tom Lee presented a set of target prices at an important industry conference: Bitcoin at 300,000, Ethereum at 20,000, with a timeline pointing to 2026. Once the news broke, many investors' eyes lit up, eager to go all-in immediately. But upon reflection, there are many traps behind this that are worth being cautious of.

Tom Lee's judgment is not baseless. From a macro perspective, after three years of tightening, the Federal Reserve has shifted its tone, and the rate cut cycle has begun. The US dollar is under pressure, and in this environment, Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset has indeed increased. Looking at market participants—institutional funds have become the main force. Just considering the spot Bitcoin ETF alone, it has absorbed over $54.75 billion in net inflows, directly changing the market sentiment. Volatility has been suppressed, speculative elements have diminished, and allocation attributes have intensified. On the supply side, there are also factors— the 2025 halving event will reduce new coin issuance, exchange reserves continue to decline, and supply-demand dynamics are tilting. These are real fundamental variables.

The problem is, retail investors are most likely to get caught here. First, they tend to compress long-term outlooks into short-term actions. Tom Lee is talking about next year, not next week. Currently, the market is still repeatedly testing the bottom zone, but many people, after hearing this, start to leverage up and rush in, only to be harvested by short-term fluctuations. Second, they overlook structural risks. Institutional dominance has indeed increased market stability, but it also means retail voices are weaker. Once the trend reverses, forced liquidations will be more intense. Another easily overlooked point—current price predictions are flying everywhere, but what is the probability of actually reaching those target prices? Achieving them requires alignment of the entire macro environment, policy factors, and technological development.

To survive longer in this cycle, the key is to distinguish between trends and volatility. Long-term optimism is correct, but chasing with a short-term mindset and positions is likely to make you the next leek for others.