Recently, a story in the crypto market has attracted a lot of attention—an Ethereum whale that had been dormant for a full 10 years suddenly woke up. This whale bought 2,000 ETH at a bargain price of $620 early on, and now its market value has soared to the $6 million level. From being a forgotten old hand in the market to a major holder with doubled assets, what does this reflect? Is it a rebuilding of market consensus or a new wave of liquidity inflow?\n\nEven more interestingly, a well-known industry figure recently staged a high-leverage operation on a derivatives exchange. He bet on Ethereum long positions totaling around 4,600 to 5,000 ETH, with unrealized gains surpassing $200,000. Dramatically, this person joked on social media, "Even if I get liquidated, I won't be emotionally affected"—despite experiencing losses of over $20 million in the past few months. Can he hold steady this time? The market is watching.\n\nOn the macro front, the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been interpreted by the market as a "turning point signal." On the surface, raising interest rates to 0.75% should be bearish, but the reality is quite the opposite—indexes like the Nikkei, US stocks, and Bitcoin have all risen collectively. Why? Because this could mean the end of Japan's 30-year deflation problem. However, the actual interest rate of 0.75% is still negative compared to over 3% inflation, meaning the central bank is still indirectly easing. The global liquidity faucet hasn't truly been tightened.\n\nMeanwhile, the new US administration is scouting for Federal Reserve chair candidates, with a simple and blunt criterion: they must agree to significant rate cuts. Four dovish candidates have already emerged, and once confirmed, the gates of global liquidity could reopen again. What does this mean for risk assets? It’s obvious.\n\nIt’s worth noting that some on-chain derivatives projects have recently been repeatedly mentioned by influential figures. Some say it’s for signal calling, while others believe it’s about screening players who truly understand on-chain data and market cycles. Everyone can make money in a bull market, relying on beta returns; but bear markets are the real test of understanding.\n\nAs Christmas and the Spring Festival approach, market volatility may increase. Many participants face a choice: hold their current positions and wait for bigger opportunities, or get shaken out by short-term market fluctuations. Can Ethereum break through $4,500? Is this the start of a new cycle or a false calm before the storm? The market is still waiting for the final answer.