Event contracts have become popular in the US over the past few years. Kalshi, as one of the first trading platforms in this field to receive official recognition from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has some interesting features.
Its core selling point is its wide coverage—ranging from political elections and economic data to sports events, almost any hot topic can be traded. Contract prices fluctuate in real-time, similar to stock candlesticks, reflecting the collective market consensus on the probability of the event occurring.
From a practical perspective, this mechanism is quite useful. On one hand, it can hedge risk exposure; on the other hand, it serves as a window to observe public opinion trends—price fluctuations essentially mirror the collective judgment of market participants. Transparency and efficiency are its two main highlights, which indeed offer a different experience for users accustomed to traditional futures.
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TokenAlchemist
· 12-20 09:50
ngl kalshi's just surfacing the inefficiency vectors that traditional prediction markets kept buried... probability pricing through real-time state transitions is where the alpha actually lives, most people still don't get it
Event contracts have become popular in the US over the past few years. Kalshi, as one of the first trading platforms in this field to receive official recognition from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has some interesting features.
Its core selling point is its wide coverage—ranging from political elections and economic data to sports events, almost any hot topic can be traded. Contract prices fluctuate in real-time, similar to stock candlesticks, reflecting the collective market consensus on the probability of the event occurring.
From a practical perspective, this mechanism is quite useful. On one hand, it can hedge risk exposure; on the other hand, it serves as a window to observe public opinion trends—price fluctuations essentially mirror the collective judgment of market participants. Transparency and efficiency are its two main highlights, which indeed offer a different experience for users accustomed to traditional futures.