Recently, U.S. President Trump has made significant moves regarding the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, explicitly indicating a preference for candidates who support aggressive rate cuts and liquidity easing. This signaling has sparked widespread discussion in financial markets—the issue of the Fed's political independence as an autonomous institution has been brought back into focus.

The four candidates in this round of selection each have their own characteristics. Kevin Hasset, as a key advisor, has recently continued to signal that inflation is manageable and there is ample room for rate cuts. Kevin Waugh is a well-known dove, advocating that current interest rates are too high and need to be significantly lowered. The current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, while publicly cautious, has already conveyed some inclination through his inclusion on the shortlist. BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, a heavyweight on Wall Street, joining the candidate pool further demonstrates the broad influence of this personnel arrangement.

From Trump’s policy demands, the goal is quite clear: to release liquidity through rate cuts, reduce financing costs (especially for housing loans), and thereby stimulate the economy and asset prices. The current federal benchmark rate of 3.5%-3.75% is considered still relatively high by him, with a significant probability of further reductions in the future. This attitude is similar to the logic of previous quantitative easing cycles—fluctuations in inflation data may no longer be the sole anchor for Fed decisions, as political objectives gain more weight.

For the cryptocurrency market, such policy shifts are not to be underestimated. Historical data shows that when central banks enter easing cycles and market liquidity expectations rise, risk assets tend to benefit first. As a high-beta asset class, cryptocurrencies are especially sensitive to liquidity changes. Once the Fed’s policy framework shifts from tightening to easing, market expectations tend to change before actual policy implementation, leading to adjustments in capital allocation.

However, it must be honestly acknowledged that there is often a gap between policy expectations and actual implementation. The real trajectory of inflation data, internal Fed negotiations, and international capital flows all influence the final outcome. The rate-cutting cycle may not unfold as smoothly as anticipated, and policy adjustments remain possible.

Mechanically speaking, when the market broadly expects liquidity to turn, this itself becomes a driving force. Expectations tend to precede actual effects, and asset prices often reflect these anticipations in advance. From this perspective, the current phase is precisely when the policy expectation window opens, making it a relatively advantageous time for early positioning. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to inflation data, Fed statements, and actual policy moves, but seizing opportunities based on expectations may be more practical than waiting for certainty.