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The "Code" Behind the Fed Chair Selection and Rate Cuts

The White House's candidate for chair has entered the final sprint. Trump has interviewed four key candidates—Hasset, Wosh, Waller, and Riedel—one after another. His attitude has been consistently straightforward: those who support aggressive rate cuts will be favored.

Currently, Waller, the incumbent board member, seems to be gaining more attention. Trump has publicly spoken highly of him, and there is an existing interaction foundation between them. However, there is a subtle tension: Waller favors a "gradual and cautious" approach to rate cuts, while Trump prefers a "decisive and rapid" move. This alignment in pace could influence the final decision.

Trump's desire for rate cuts is unmistakable. He repeatedly emphasizes that interest rates must be significantly lowered to directly ease mortgage and auto loan burdens for ordinary families. Currently, US rates hover around 3.5%-3.75%, but he clearly wants to see a more aggressive downward space to inject confidence into the economy.

Interestingly, the latest inflation data just provides some "excuses." The November YoY CPI growth slowed to 2.7%, suggesting inflation pressures are easing. But within the Fed, opinions are divided—New York Fed President Williams questions the reliability of the data, implying it might be underestimated; meanwhile, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee sees more room for rate cuts. The same data becomes "evidence" that different factions can cite to support their views.

This personnel contest has gone beyond individual appointments and evolved into a debate over the direction of the US economy: should it prioritize liquidity release to stimulate growth, or control risks and prevent a resurgence of inflation?

What do you think—who will ultimately win this competition? Are significant rate cuts truly a cure for the economy, or do they lay the groundwork for new hidden risks?