The recent market movements can truly be called a roller coaster—early mornings saw Bitcoin drop from above $90,000 down to around $85,000, Ethereum repeatedly tugging at the $3,000 level. While the bulls haven't been completely wiped out, they've certainly taken some hits.

The logic behind this trend is actually quite clear. The market has been playing an old trick: "Frenzied speculation before news is confirmed, then start selling once it’s verified." Last week’s Federal Reserve action followed this pattern, and the past few days have been no different.

**What do you think about the Japanese Central Bank raising interest rates?**

The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, pushing the rate to 0.75%, a 30-year high. Interestingly, the market’s reaction to this news wasn’t overly dramatic. The reason is—this "shoe" has been anticipated for a whole month, and everyone was mentally prepared. Historically, previous rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have often led to Bitcoin experiencing large adjustments exceeding 20%, but this time is completely different; expectations have been fully digested.

What’s actually weighing down the market are the signals coming from Federal Reserve officials. They hinted that there won’t be aggressive easing ahead, and the pace of rate cuts will be relatively "moderate." In other words, the market was expecting a dovish rescue, but since the Fed isn’t being that aggressive, this "disappointment" is the real source of selling pressure.

**What’s next?**

Short-term macroeconomic negative factors have basically been exhausted. With Japan’s rate hike implemented and the Fed’s stance clear, unless some black swan event occurs, the market focus will inevitably shift back to technical analysis.

The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 16, entering extreme fear territory. Such extreme sentiment levels often signal a turning point in history.