#以太坊行情解读 🚨The Federal Reserve decision personnel shake-up, crypto markets sniff out a big opportunity

Honestly, recent market prediction data fluctuations are quite interesting. The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair has become the ultimate gamble for global capital—not because someone understands economics better, but because the decision-maker directly influences future monetary easing.

Kevin Hasset's nomination probability recently surged to 54%, with some platforms even reaching 51%. This guy is backed by Trump, advocates aggressive rate cuts, and has publicly stated he wants to cut rates to 1%. His opponent, Waller, has a different background and a more hawkish stance. Two weeks ago, the situation was reversed, with Waller ahead, but now he's been overtaken—this dramatic reversal itself indicates the market is re-evaluating this decision.

Why does the crypto market care so much about this? Simply put: rate cuts = abundant liquidity = rising risk assets. High-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are especially sensitive to interest rate environments. If we truly enter a 1% interest rate era, the ongoing devaluation pressure on fiat currencies will intensify, and the safe-haven and appreciation attributes of crypto assets will be re-priced.

Another detail worth noting is that Hasset holds a significant amount of Coinbase stock, indicating he not only verbally supports crypto but also has real financial interests involved. The crypto community is particularly interested in such "insiders," not because it signifies political bias, but because it means policymakers themselves understand this market.

Economists' opinions are interesting: 84% are optimistic about his nomination, but only 11% believe he is the "most suitable" choice. This divergence itself creates a gap in market pricing. The larger the expectation gap, the more profit early investors might make.

From a trading perspective, key points to watch:

**Monitor real-time probability fluctuations in prediction markets.** This isn't some secret tool; it's about observing the weights that market participants are betting with real funds. Probability shifts from 50% to 54% often correspond to a change in market sentiment, sometimes signaling a good entry or holding point.

**Don't focus solely on a single variable.** There are other figures changing within the Federal Reserve Board; Trump has been constantly replacing personnel, and the overall direction of easing policy is almost a certainty. So rather than obsessing over who becomes the chair, focus on the big trend—ample liquidity as a fundamental.

**The window for risk asset re-pricing is opening.** If interest rates truly go down, assets like Ethereum and ZEC, which have solid fundamentals, will perform more stably than purely speculative assets. But this doesn't mean going all-in now; it's about starting to think about position timing and rhythm.

**Fiat devaluation is a long-term story.** Regardless of who becomes the chair, the global trend of central banks easing liquidity won't change. The attractiveness of crypto assets as alternative assets is rising—this is a medium-term logic.

In short, the market is voting with a 54% probability. This isn't an absolute certainty, but it represents the consensus direction of most participants. What's next is whether this consensus can hold, and whether any black swan events during the process might change the game.

$ETH, $ZEC, $SSV and other tokens' recent volatility, to some extent, reflect a re-evaluation of the macro expectations mentioned above. Historically, every shift in Fed policy expectations has triggered a wave of risk asset revaluation. This time might be no different.

Are you ready?