A recent interesting phenomenon has emerged on prediction platforms—participants are betting real money on who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair.

According to data from multiple prediction platforms, the head of the National Economic Council, Haskett, has the highest probability of being chosen, with 54% and 51% on different platforms, surpassing other potential candidates. Behind him are former Federal Reserve Board member Wosh (two) and current Federal Reserve Board member Waller (three).

Prediction markets are quite fascinating. Participants betting with real funds often reflect the market’s true judgment on an event earlier than traditional polls. In other words, this data is pricing a hypothetical scenario: if Trump is elected, Haskett is very likely to be nominated as Fed Chair.

So, who is Haskett? His background is quite unique—he previously served as Trump’s economic advisor and is now the director of the White House National Economic Council. Recently, he publicly stated that the traditional annual inflation calculation method has issues and suggested using a three-month moving average to observe trends. This viewpoint itself indicates that his approach to inflation policy might differ from traditionalists.

If this expectation continues to strengthen, the future policy direction of the Fed could change, directly affecting the stock market, bond market, and of course, the crypto market. However, it’s still too early to discuss definitively—the final decision rests with the President’s nomination and Senate confirmation, and there are still many uncertainties.

For investors, this offers a new perspective. But don’t overinterpret it; ultimately, the market will reprice based on actual policy implementation and economic data. A rational approach is to consider it as one of many references while continuing to monitor other macroeconomic developments.