The Bank of Japan raised interest rates today, $BTC fluctuating around 86K.

Many are asking: Is this the bottom? Can we buy the dip now?

I don't know.

But I know that historical data will tell you something more valuable.

In the past three Japanese rate hikes, BTC's performance was as follows:

• March 2024 rate hike → BTC declined by -23% to -27%, lasting 6 weeks

• July 2024 rate hike → BTC declined by -26% to -30%, lasting 8 weeks (including the flash crash on August 5)

• January 2025 rate hike → BTC declined by -31%, lasting 7 weeks

Average decline of 27%, average duration of 7 weeks.

If history repeats, the trend this time might be:

Pessimistic scenario: drop to 70K (-19%), lasting until late January 2026
Neutral scenario: drop to 75K (-13%), lasting until mid-January 2026
Optimistic scenario: stabilize at 80K (-7%), within 2 weeks

But the question is, will this time be different?
Three factors could change the historical pattern:

But there are also three factors indicating risks still exist:

Ueda and Manabu's guidance on the rate hike path for 2026 (this is the real ticking time bomb)

Liquidity exhaustion at the end of the year, with institutions generally locking positions until January next year

Market volatility caused by the US "Triple Witching" (trillions of dollars in options expiring)

So what should we do now?

History teaches us three iron laws:

First, don't buy the dip on the day of a rate hike. In the past three times, anyone who bought the dip on that day was trapped in the following weeks.

Second, observe a 6-8 week window. The true bottom often appears around the 6-8 weeks after the rate hike.

Third, watch ETF fund flows. When there are net inflows for three consecutive days, it signals institutions are rebuilding positions.

I won't tell you whether to buy or sell now.

But I will tell you: history doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes.

When everyone is asking "Will this time be different," the market often tells you in the cruelest way: most of the time, it's the same. #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析