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November CPI data unexpectedly declined, sparking cheers on the political front, but the market reality reveals a different story.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled October CPI release due to a government shutdown lasting over a month, and November's figures were severely distorted as a result—mainly relying on Black Friday promotional prices to fill data gaps, with a total of 45 key indicators missing. Economists' assessments were blunt: "This data is simply not trustworthy." The former director was even more straightforward, pointing out that a one-month "blind spot" rendered economic monitoring indicators ineffective, with no way to automatically fix it.

Interestingly, Wall Street and the bond market chose to remain calm and watchful, reacting quite indifferently to the report. The consensus in expert circles is that this may be just a fleeting illusion. Due to the data interruption in October and November, the overall inflation trend has become increasingly unclear.

Nominally, the annual CPI still stands at 2.7%, but political discourse has shifted toward the argument of "almost no inflation." The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: on one hand, expectations of rate cuts are rising; on the other hand, the credibility of the statistical data itself has become questionable. Royal Bank of Canada also admitted, "This data is really hard to interpret."

A more severe backdrop is that political pressure and resource constraints are eroding the credibility of US economic data. If next month’s inflation figures rebound, will this "victory" hold up? No one can give a definitive answer.