Prediction markets turned out to be surprisingly engaging once you nail down your approach. The formula isn't complicated: strict position sizing discipline plus selective bet placement on outcomes carrying 80% or higher implied probability. What's striking is how consistently you can identify mispriced events when most participants rush in without doing their homework. The market tends to reward patience and selective entry points—there's a substantial volume of capital flowing toward positions that actually warrant that kind of conviction. It's less about predicting black swans and more about finding spots where crowd sentiment diverges sharply from real probabilities. The mechanics work if you respect your risk management framework and avoid the temptation to scale beyond what makes sense. Turns out the deeper you understand order flow and probability calibration, the more obvious these opportunities become.