#数字资产市场洞察 The Bank of Japan's rate hike has landed—will the global financial markets change?

This recent move seems restrained on the surface, but the subsequent chain reactions could be far more complex—Japan officially raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%. The decision to hike by 25 basis points may trigger a long-anticipated reversal of capital flows.

The key lies in these numbers: approximately $9 trillion in yen arbitrage trading funds have been borrowing low-interest yen and reallocating into global assets over the years. Now, as the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows, these funds are quietly shifting. In other words, the cheap yen financing that once fueled global assets is now beginning to shrink.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH and DOGE, as well as the entire risk asset ecosystem, have benefited indirectly from this low-interest-rate environment. When this environment changes, the transmission chain will gradually unfold—from the forex market to bonds, and eventually to stocks and commodities.

Japan's fiscal measures are also heating up: a short-term supplementary budget equivalent to 2.8% of nominal GDP, with plans to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP in the longer term, along with policies to reduce consumption taxes. This combination indicates that supply pressures and risks in the Japanese bond market are rising simultaneously.

Liquidity tightening combined with increasing debt pressures will exert continuous downward pressure on global financial conditions. Historical experience shows that such shocks usually first react in the forex and bond markets, but ultimately propagate to all risk assets.

The current question is: which sector will be affected first by this wave of shocks? Will stocks, commodities, or the crypto market be the first to feel the impact? Will the global asset allocation landscape undergo a new round of reshuffling? Share your thoughts and observations.