A key mindset shift that leveled up my trading approach: stop viewing each trade as a standalone conviction play. Instead, think of your positions as a collection of small-bet hypotheses testing different scenarios.

Instead of going all-in on one BTC direction and sweating it out, I started spreading modest amounts across multiple assets. The psychological weight lifts immediately—you're not married to any single outcome. More importantly, your edge compounds when you're playing multiple angles simultaneously rather than tunnel-visioning on one narrative.

This portfolio approach to prediction-making changed how I calibrate conviction. Smaller individual positions, more experimentation, better risk-adjusted returns. Worth reconsidering if you're currently concentrating bets.