The sudden change in the candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair has shifted the situation dramatically. A statement from JPMorgan CEO directly broke the original pattern—initially, it seemed that White House advisor Haskett had an 80% chance of appointment, but now that probability has dropped straight to 50%, matching that of former Fed Governor Waller. This high-level policy contest is becoming a major variable in global asset allocation, with the crypto market standing at the forefront of the decision-making edge.

The two candidates have completely opposite policy orientations. Haskett is a typical "rapid liquidity expansion" advocate—he proposes significant rate cuts, directly treating low-interest car loans and mortgages as political tools to promote, which could lead to a large influx of funds into financial markets in the short term. But there is a fatal problem: he has no practical experience in central banking operations and has openly questioned the Fed’s independence. Markets worry that this logic could turn the central bank into a "political tool," ultimately causing long-term inflation to spiral out of control. For crypto assets, this resembles a "crazy surge in the first three months followed by a direct collapse."

Waller takes a completely different approach. He has been involved in monetary policy formulation since the Bernanke era, with a deep understanding of market operations and balance. He advocates a "gradual and moderate" pace of rate cuts. The benefit of this approach is balancing rate cuts and inflation control to avoid chaos in the yield curve. JPMorgan CEO supports him precisely because of this steady operational style, which can make liquidity supply more controllable and sustainable.

The impact of these two approaches on the crypto market is entirely different. If Haskett takes office, BTC and ETH might experience a "violent surge," with short-term capital inflows pushing prices higher, but the risk of inflation rebound would be like a ticking time bomb lurking behind. On the other hand, if Waller takes office, the market would see a "steady rise"—the pace may not be as steep, but expectations would be clearer and more stable, allowing DeFi ecosystems, spot ETFs, and other sectors to receive more lasting policy support.

The current issue falls on Trump’s side, as he must choose between "short-term political gains" and "long-term market confidence." The answer will be revealed early next year. Which of these two rate-cutting approaches do you think is more beneficial for the crypto asset market? Can BTC break through $100,000 during this policy window?