#大户持仓动态 # Data Warning: $ETH is experiencing a massive outflow from exchanges, and the next wave of market movement may be imminent

Recently, there's a data point worth monitoring — the proportion of Ethereum held across all exchanges has fallen below 8%, a level never seen since 2015. At the same time, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are only about 2.75 million coins.

This isn’t a situation caused by retail investors’ casual actions. Behind it are large funds moving. What are they doing? Transferring coins into cold wallets, participating in staking, or simply locking them up for the long term. The signals being sent are very clear — they are reluctant to sell, and they are optimistic about what’s coming next.

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# # Three forces are converging

**First, fewer coins are on exchanges.**

The available circulating supply is shrinking rapidly. What does this mean? Any slightly larger buy order could quickly push prices higher. Market resilience is weakening, and price volatility will become more intense.

**Second, new funds are entering.**

Major institutions in the US have opened up access for clients to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. What does this imply? Traditional finance is starting to channel money into the crypto market. The scale is enormous — beyond what retail investors can imagine.

**Third, sentiment and fundamentals are both driving prices up.**

Scarcity combined with new capital creates a "self-reinforcing" cycle — buying pushes prices higher, high prices attract more attention, and more attention leads to more buying. Once this rotation mechanism kicks in, it can generate a very strong upward momentum.

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# # But bull markets are often the biggest trap for retail investors

This phrase has been heard many times, but data supports it: over 90% of retail investors end up losing money in a bull market.

Why?

Because when faced with uncertainty, people tend to act most irrationally.

During declines, you always think "it’s not the bottom yet," only to watch others get in while you miss out. When prices rise, you’re afraid of missing the boat again, so you chase the high, and end up buying at the top. Even worse, frequent position switching — hearing that one coin is hot today, then another tomorrow — results in higher costs and repeated losses of profit.

Bull markets won’t save you. They only expose your weaknesses and settle accounts in the fairest way.

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# # What truly matters

When market supply and demand are out of balance to this extent, and macro policy environments shift, a major change is brewing. Perhaps this is the prelude to Ethereum breaking its all-time high.

But winners are not those who only react when the market rises. Winners are those who have already thought through their strategies and adjusted their mindset before the storm hits.

What about you?