Can the ups and downs in the crypto market really be predicted? This is a question many people ask.

As someone who has been in this circle for 6 years, my answer is: yes, it can be predicted, but not so simply.

**Indicator Learning is Fundamental**

To judge market direction, you first need to spend more effort learning K-line charts and various indicators. The accuracy of indicators in the crypto world is actually much better than in the A-share market, for a very straightforward reason — the crypto market supports short selling, and the battle between bulls and bears is more intense, making indicator signals naturally more reliable.

**Four Key Aspects Are Essential**

But here’s the point to clarify: in the futures market, to achieve stable profits, just knowing how to read indicators is not enough. Leverage control, position management, take-profit and stop-loss, trend judgment — all four aspects must be mastered. Missing any one of them significantly increases the risk of losing money.

**Mainstream Coins vs Small Coins**

Another key point is coin selection. Small coins that are tightly controlled by big players are almost impossible to predict accurately, and the risk of being "liquidated" is very high. In contrast, mainstream coins have more dispersed distribution of major players, and my prediction success rate can be stably maintained at around 60-70%.

But even with a high success rate, if the take-profit and stop-loss levels are not set properly, it’s all for nothing. My current approach is to use multiple indicators for cross-validation, confirming signals before placing an order. This way, I can push the success rate above 80%.

**Real Cases**

Take the last two trades as examples. RECALL surged from its high to 0.575; my target was 0.58. Although it didn’t fully reach the target, I still secured over 20% profit. SLERF performed even more strongly, reaching a high of 0.394; my original target was 0.28, which was surpassed early. In the end, I gained over 40%.

That’s all the experience I have. The core of making money still comes down to discipline and patience.