Wall Street market research is redefining our understanding of Bitcoin cycles. The once classic 4-year bull-bear pattern is now facing a substantial shift—next cycle may extend to 5 years.

This is not just imagination. The traditional halving-driven formula has become invalid. The old routine of "halving → peak after one year" no longer applies. According to this new theory, BTC is expected to reach its high point in Q2 2026.

What is the key change? The macro liquidity cycle. Previously, the market mainly relied on FOMO and halving events for excitement, but now the real dominance lies in the economic factors: US debt scale, interest rate levels, dollar strength, and global capital flows. Halving still exists, but it has become a supporting role rather than the main act.

Why has the cycle length changed from 4 to 5 years? The Treasury has extended the average debt maturity to 5 years. This means investors need to reassess risk exposure with a longer-term perspective. The liquidity turnover time has increased, and market reactions have slowed accordingly. Bitcoin is gradually aligning with this macro fiscal cycle.

More interestingly, monitoring manufacturing sector health is becoming increasingly critical. The correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and Bitcoin price movements is strengthening—when the ISM is in expansion, it often corresponds to an upward cycle for Bitcoin. Short-term corrections will not disrupt this big trend.

So if you want to understand where Bitcoin is heading next, instead of focusing on the next halving, pay attention to the US debt maturity structure and manufacturing data. This is the new era’s key to market analysis.