Market is all red, but I see a different story in on-chain data.

Opening the trading platform shows green numbers, and ZEC's recent move was indeed fierce—dropping from $750 to $550 within 24 hours, then plunging again to $533, for a total decline of over 28%. Everywhere online, there are voices saying "It's over," with cries of panic selling.

I've been in this circle for five years and have seen many market conditions. During times like this, when the whole internet is bearish, I tend to look more carefully at the data—because often, the most counterintuitive signals are hidden here.

Most retail investors only see the absolute price dropping, but I see something else in the on-chain data. This isn't blind optimism; it's based on an understanding of market structure. Today, I want to discuss why I think this decline looks more like the main players are sending "red envelopes" rather than a real collapse.

**First Counterintuitive Signal: Top Trending on Hot Search Doesn't Mean Market Optimism**

ZEC topped the trending search list, with search interest tripling. It seems like attention is exploding, but is the market really optimistic about it?

In my five years of observation, when a coin suddenly hits the hot search after a sharp drop, it's usually retail panic-searching. It's like a ship about to sink—people are frantically looking for lifeboats—not because they think the ship is safe, but because they think it's doomed.

The actual trading data is very clear: those who entered above $700 started to sell en masse once it hit $550; those who bought the bottom at $550 got scared again and sold when it dipped to $533. This cycle of "buy the dip, sell the rip, buy again, sell again"