In a situation of both bulls and bears killing each other, the ones truly making money are never the retail traders following the trend, but those who can read the details in the data.

Last night, after the release of the non-farm payroll data, the crypto world exploded. Traders watching the charts split into two camps arguing: one side celebrating that "the bull market is here" and rushing to buy, the other crying that they are bankrupt and need to liquidate.

Having been in this market for many years, I carefully examined this report, and the conclusion I draw might surprise many — on the surface, this data appears "better than expected," but in reality, it is the market conducting a stress test and also a warning signal for the next wave of market movement.

**The data looks a bit "cracked"**

To understand the current situation, we first need to understand how global capital flows. Think of it as a huge water current, with the crypto market being one of the small pools within it. The Federal Reserve? It’s the main gate of this system — controlling where the water flows by adjusting interest rates, like a dam.

Last night, the US November non-farm payroll data was released. The headline figures look good: job additions slightly exceeded expectations, and companies seem quite confident. But hidden within the same report is something stimulating — the unemployment rate soared to 4.6%, a four-year high. Even more painfully, last month’s data was revised downward, showing the largest single-month employment decline in five years.

Behind this set of seemingly contradictory data, the real situation is that the US economy is stuck at a sensitive watershed: companies are still hiring, private sector employment growth is strong, indicating they remain confident; but the unemployment rate is rising, hinting at underlying fragility in the job market.

It’s this contradiction that gives smart traders an opportunity to position themselves.