#大户持仓动态 Ethereum has been fluctuating around 2820 in recent days, with retail investors cutting losses and exiting, but institutional wallets continue to accumulate near 2760. This seemingly simple price fluctuation actually reflects a shift in the narrative of capital power.

Data is the most convincing. The open interest of Ethereum futures has surged from $10 billion to over $35 billion, indicating that large funds have not exited the market but are adjusting their position structures. Meanwhile, ETH reserves on exchanges are continuously declining, implying that chips are flowing from retail hands to long-term holders. The combination of these two signals suggests that the market bottom is beginning to take shape.

Currently, market sentiment is in the "extreme fear" zone. Historically, this often precedes a rebound. Coupled with signals of improved regulatory environment and subtle changes in ETF liquidity, the ETH/BTC exchange ratio has also fallen to a key support level. These conditions, stacked together, are like a spring being compressed to its lowest point, ready to release.

From a trading perspective, the strategy can be broken down as follows:

Step one is to observe support. If the 2760 to 2800 range holds, it indicates that the trend framework is still intact; if it breaks, an immediate adjustment of strategy is needed.

Step two is to enter gradually. Deploy positions in batches around 2820, but always set stop-losses, with below 2780 as the stop-loss line. Money management is always more important than prediction.

Step three is to confirm strength. Once above 2870, the short-term rebound strength can be preliminarily confirmed, and subsequent targets can be set around 2940 to 2960.

Opportunities often appear when no one is paying attention. When most are watching and hesitating, the real profit-makers are already positioning. This is not an encouragement to blindly enter the market, but a reminder — during the most pessimistic moments, maintaining rational judgment and strict risk management can often seize the starting point of the next cycle.