Who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair? The prediction market has the answer.

Question

【BlockBeats】Recently, there’s an interesting piece of news—BlackRock’s investment heavyweight Rick Rieder is going for an interview to become the Federal Reserve Chair. It sounds small, but it’s a big deal for the crypto world.

Let’s first see how the betting is laid out. According to the latest data from prediction markets, Kevin Hasset, Director of the National Economic Council, is currently the clear front-runner, with about a 54% chance of being nominated, far ahead of other candidates. Former Fed Governor Kevin Wessel follows closely with about a 21% chance, while incumbent Fed Governor Christopher Waller ranks third with about a 14% chance.

Why should we pay attention to this? Simply put, the choice of the Fed Chair directly influences the future direction of monetary policy. Whether the policy is dovish or hawkish has a huge impact on the liquidity of the entire market. Especially for our asset class that is sensitive to interest rates, who sits in that chair will determine the market’s rhythm for the next few years.

DeepRabbitHole · Accepted Answer

Hasset has a 54% chance to crush directly; this game is basically decided.

AltcoinHunter · Answer

Hasset has a 54% probability, is this wave stable? Something feels off. I trust prediction markets, but this data seems too absolute...

I've never been so certain when cutting losses.

GasFeeWhisperer · Answer

Hasset's 54% is a bit uncertain; it seems the prediction market is still waiting for new data.

RooftopVIP · Answer

Is the 54% probability of Hasset so high? It feels like the hawkish stance is about to take off.

zkProofInThePudding · Answer

Hasset has a 54% win rate? If this guy really gets promoted, the coin price might take off.

BearMarketSurvivor · Answer

Hasset's 54% chance is a bit uncertain. If the hawks come into power, we'll be in for a beating.

TopEscapeArtist · Answer

Hasset has a 54% probability, looks stable, but I've studied this kind of prediction market before, and it's easy to go to extremes. Is the signal for bottom-fishing at high levels coming?

Another key figure who "decides the market rhythm," always says this, but what’s the result? Still just dancing around with the candlestick chart.

Even if loose policies really come, I might not dare to catch them; that's how I got trapped last time.