The Fed has just announced the third round of interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, becoming the main driver for this rate cut. The dollar faced short-term pressure before gradually stabilizing, while gold fell into turbulence.

Market divergences have surfaced. The Fed's latest dot plot indicates only one rate cut planned for 2026, far below the previously expected 3-4 cuts by the market. This signifies a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the easing cycle. More striking data comes from the futures market, where the originally expected rate cut opportunity in June has now seen its probability halved from 70% to 50%. The clash of views between hawkish and dovish officials has become the norm within the Fed.

From the perspective of crypto assets, the unexpected bond purchase operation with a scale of 40 billion still released a signal of easing. The on-chain activity of the Ethereum ecosystem has increased during this round of expectation changes, and emerging meme coins have also started to build momentum. Capital is sensitive to changes; once easing expectations are confirmed, these funds may find new directions. Will labor data continue to weaken? Where is the next turning point for the interest rate cut pace? These are all worth closely monitoring.