Not long after the last 43-day shutdown turmoil, the two parties in the United States have again hit a snag over budget issues. The current situation is that government funding can only last until January 30th. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement before then, the U.S. government will have to shut down again.

The core of the disagreement is very clear - the Democrats want to extend the health insurance subsidy policy, which affects the medical security of over 20 million people; the Republicans, on the other hand, are determined to cut government spending and have a very tough stance on fiscal issues.

The background is more heart-wrenching. The current expected growth rate of the U.S. economy is only 1.4%, inflation is still stuck at 3.1%, and the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.6%—this is a typical "stagflation" vicious circle. If it really comes to a standstill, the pressure on the economy and society will only increase further.

Looking back at the old accounts, you will know how serious the consequences are. During the last shutdown, the U.S. economy directly lost $11 billion, over 40 airports nationwide experienced a complete paralysis of flights, ports were filled with goods waiting to be shipped, and the lives of ordinary people and the operations of businesses were disrupted.

For the financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector, a government shutdown often signifies extreme uncertainty. The US dollar may experience significant fluctuations, and the stability of US stocks and bonds may decline. Historically, once traditional financial markets begin to fluctuate, a portion of the funds tends to shift towards Bitcoin and other options viewed as safe-haven or alternative assets. If a shutdown does indeed occur, the cryptocurrency market may witness complex changes in sentiment and capital flows in the short term.

There are only a few weeks left until January 30th, and whether the two parties can reach a compromise amid mid-term political considerations is still a big question mark. What do you think? Will there really be a shutdown this time? If it does shut down, how do you think the crypto market will react?