At the end of 2025, the global financial markets experienced an unexpected shock. The Japanese Central Bank's interest rate hike decision caught the market off guard - a 25 basis point increase officially declared the end of the negative interest rate era. This news was like a stone thrown into still water, instantly creating a thousand layers of waves.

In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve frequently signaled interest rate cuts, and the market was originally looking forward to it. But once the dot plot was released, reality became somewhat awkward: only one rate cut is planned for 2026. This "hawkish easing" tactic has a clear subtext — the Federal Reserve intends to continue attracting global capital inflows. However, the power of this move by the Bank of Japan exceeded expectations, as the USD/JPY interest rate differential fell below 3%, and the carry trade that originally thrived on Wall Street instantly lost its appeal.

The flow of capital is always the most honest. A large amount of dollar assets has been sold off, with the Chinese market alone absorbing $18 billion in capital influx. This global migration of capital is not accidental; there is a deep logic behind it—Europe's economic growth continues to be weak, US stock valuations are already at historical highs, and finding suitable safe-haven assets has become a dilemma for investors.

Against this backdrop, crypto assets have entered the market's sight. The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin has been fully activated, and its characteristics of fighting inflation and avoiding systemic risks are particularly attractive at this moment. Foreign capital has unanimously turned its attention to this emerging safe-haven tool. Ethereum, on the other hand, operates under a different logic—within the broader environment where the market still maintains expectations of interest rate cuts, the growth potential of technology-related assets is the greatest and the most resilient.

When it comes to asset allocation, this approach is actually similar to the classic "dumbbell strategy" in the A-shares market: one end is a defensive ballast, while the other end is an offensive vanguard. Bitcoin serves the defensive function, Ethereum plays the offensive role, and those varieties lacking fundamental support and relying solely on speculation have long been filtered out by institutional investors.

Looking ahead to 2026, the changes in the global financial market have just begun to unfold. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its firm stance, and even the possibility of interest rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out; the Bank of Japan may further raise rates to 1%. Against the backdrop of tightening global liquidity, the crypto market is迎来了新的机遇——this may sound somewhat counterintuitive, but history has repeatedly proven that the more dramatic the changes in the market, the more valuable truly scarce assets become. Digital assets with real characteristics are waiting for their moment.