#BTC资金流动性 Technical Analysis is essentially about finding patterns from historical trends, but these patterns can only be described using probabilities.

For example, when people see the double top pattern, many think that it will drop. Is that true? Not necessarily. Sometimes it will instead consolidate and continue to rise. Another example is the old routine of golden cross and death cross; does a golden cross definitely mean it will rise? It's not that absolute; it could very well just move sideways after the cross. One can only say that when a golden cross occurs, the K-line has already risen for a while, and the moving averages have been lifted to generate this signal, which indeed increases the probability of rising from that point onward.

But in the end, everything is just a game of probabilities.

There is a common misconception that many people fall into in trading: getting caught up in the gains and losses of individual trades. Regretting a loss and feeling proud of a gain. Frankly, this is meaningless. Even if you lose five trades in a row, it still holds no significance.

A verified trading system with a true positive expected value behaves like this: there will be periods of consecutive profits, and there will inevitably be periods of consecutive losses. This is normal and not a sign that the system is malfunctioning. As long as you trade enough times, the law of large numbers will gradually show its power, and the final account curve will definitely trend upwards.

When you truly understand this, your mindset completely changes. In the face of a series of small losses, you will remain calm. Since the final outcome is destined to be profitable, why should you stop loss, feel anxious, and toss and turn over one or two failures?

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