A recent perspective on the Crypto Assets market has sparked considerable discussion in the community. An analyst from a well-known institution recently explained their view — not extremely bearish, but focused on Risk Management for positions in the first half of next year.

He listed several market risk factors: potential government shutdown, fluctuations in trade policy, uncertain prospects for AI capital expenditure, changes in the Federal Reserve chair, as well as tight high-yield bond spreads and low cross-asset volatility. These are all short-term uncertainties.

From a funding perspective, Bitcoin's valuation has indeed entered unfamiliar territory. In the long term, ETF demand will improve as more brokerage channels get involved. However, there is considerable pressure in the short term—old coin holders are reducing their positions, miners are selling off, certain US stock indices may adjust individual weighted stocks, and funds are maturing and need to redeem.

His latest prediction is: there will be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another pullback in the first half of the year, ultimately creating a better buying opportunity before the end of the year.

Here comes the interesting part. Why does he disagree with the viewpoints of the institutional research team? The reason is simple – **different client bases**. Institutional investors typically allocate only 1-5% of their funds to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and they require extreme discipline and a long-term perspective, so their research results focus on long-term price predictions.

But as an analyst in the internal Crypto Assets sector, he serves clients who have allocated more than 20% of their portfolio funds to Crypto Assets. This group of people needs to flexibly adjust their Position according to different cycles to outperform the market. With different stances, the analysis framework naturally varies.

This also explains why institutions are optimistic about the early-year surge, while the analyst team maintains a cautious attitude towards the first half of the year—they are indeed catering to investors with different needs, and there is no right or wrong, just a difference in perspective.