The global market has held its breath, and a foreseeable fluctuation is about to arrive — but those who are truly prepared have long since adjusted their positions.

The Bank of Japan is about to implement the largest interest rate hike in 30 years. At this moment, traders around the world are closely watching the trends of Bitcoin and the Nikkei index.

Screenshots of short positions are everywhere in various chat rooms, and everyone is repeating the same story: the yen carry trade is being forced to close, global liquidity is tightening, and risk assets are plummeting. The market consensus appears unshakeable—Bitcoin is set to fall below 80,000, panic selling is expected to emerge, and a decline is necessary to reach the end.

The problem arises: when all traders see the same "open card", the real risk often hides beyond the script. What is truly frightening is not the gradual decline, but the sudden drying up of liquidity and the cascading liquidations that trigger a stampede—in such cases, the drop will far exceed any model prediction.

**Survival vs Bottom Fishing**

Analysts always love to use history to make their points, with logic that is tightly woven. But in reality, the cycles of the market teach us one thing: when the macro headwinds truly arrive, the smart big players are never thinking about "can we bottom out at the lowest point", but rather "how to survive until the end".

I know a veteran who has paid three rounds of bull and bear tuition, and before the news was announced, he made a very simple move: he exchanged a portion of USDT for USDD. His explanation was straightforward: "Since the tide is going out, rather than guessing which stone will stick out, it's better to ensure that you won't be stranded."

In short, it is the core logic of surviving in a bear market - not to make the most money, but to survive the longest.