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JPMorgan's recent actions have attracted considerable attention. Within a few months, they significantly reduced their funds held at the Federal Reserve from $409 billion to $63 billion, and then turned around and invested $450 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which is indeed a rare intensity.

On the surface, it appears to be an adjustment in asset allocation, but in reality, it reflects a judgment on the current interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve has already lowered interest rates to a three-year low, and an obvious fact is that the era of high interest rates is coming to an end. JP Morgan clearly does not want to miss the opportunity to lock in long-term returns, which is based on a precise grasp of the liquidity cycle. They made early bottom-fishing when bond losses were spreading, stemming from their cautious choices in long-term bonds in earlier years.

What is more concerning is the overall condition of the market. The shadow banking sector has expanded to $63 trillion, and the private credit market has accumulated $1.8 trillion, both of which are facing pressure from concentrated redemptions. At the same time, high-yield bonds have shown significant fluctuations, with funds quietly withdrawing. The Federal Reserve has recently been injecting $40 billion per month into short-term debt for stabilization operations, indicating that liquidity management has become quite tight.

So, is JPMorgan's move seizing an opportunity or a timely retreat before the storm? Currently, it seems that the global funding chain is indeed in a sensitive position, which is why market participants are closely watching every move of these major banks.