#大户持仓动态 Interest rate cut dream shattered - Fed's January interest rate cut probability slumps to 22%

The wind direction changes as it pleases. The market was still fantasizing about the benefits of interest rate cuts, only to be slapped in the face by the data. Fed officials have been frequently releasing hawkish signals, and the third-in-command, Williams, has even bluntly stated: inflation data has been severely underestimated.

The translation boils down to one sentence - high interest rates will continue to endure.

What does this mean? It means that global assets are facing repricing. The balance of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange has been disrupted, and every reversal of policy expectations could trigger severe volatility. Every word from Powell and the release of each economic data have become the ignition points for the market.

The White House wants to promote growth, while the Fed aims to combat inflation—two forces are in a tug-of-war. The market is like a spring pressed to its limit; once expectations suddenly reverse, the rebound can often exceed imagination. The tighter the expectations are compressed, the more intense the fluctuations upon release.

In the current rhythm, one should not blindly chase long positions nor stubbornly hold onto short positions. Focus on two key matters: first, the core indicators of economic data (non-farm payroll, CPI, PPI); second, the policy statements from Fed officials. Maintain flexible positions and be prepared for adjustments at any time.

$ETH $BTC The trends of mainstream assets like this will first reflect changes in expectations. The next surge in risk assets may come in the next data release or the next speech.