Seeing the news "Japan's interest rate hike hits a 30-year high" on my friend circle, my first reaction was to wake up instantly: that's it, it’s definitely going to crash. But the K-line directly slapped me in the face—BTC and ETH surged in the Asian market, and the market not only didn’t collapse but instead jumped up.

Let's get to the point: this interest rate hike seems grand, but it's actually just easing off the gas, so don't be intimidated.

Jumping directly from 0.5% to 0.75% does sound like the first time in 30 years. But there’s a detail that’s easy to overlook — the real interest rate is still negative. The Bank of Japan even joked about it themselves, saying, "significantly negative, the financial environment remains accommodative," which means the party is far from over, everyone keep enjoying.

The market is most afraid of unexpected events, and this time it was exactly a 0 surprise. The expectation of a 25bp rate cut had already been written into all institutions' PPTs, and its implementation is equivalent to the shoe dropping. There was no more hawkish statement, no preemptive tapering, and no urgent harsh words; leverage remained flat, and the panic button was never triggered.

Another key point: the yen hasn't soared. Theoretically, interest rate hikes should push up the yen, and a stronger yen would trigger carry trades. But in reality? The yen has instead dropped to 156, allowing those borrowing in yen to breathe a sigh of relief, and risk assets continue to benefit from low-interest bullets. The "bad news = good news" tactic has appeared again—anticipating a preemptive cut, the reality instead became a signal to "buy the fact," and the classic strategy in the crypto circle has once again harvested a wave of shorts.

But don't be fooled by the false rebound. The real black swan is queuing up in 2026. If the Bank of Japan suddenly turns hawkish and raises interest rates violently in succession, the yen could instantly appreciate by 20%. At that time, the collective unwinding of carry trades will be the highlight. The risk is far from over; it has just been temporarily suppressed.