Recently, a significant turning point has emerged in the global financial markets — Japan's economic data has just set a 30-year record.
The CPI inflation rate has risen to 2.8%. This figure may seem ordinary, but its implications are astonishing: Japan has achieved "inflation surpassing" the United States for the first time since 1979 (the current rate in the U.S. is 2.7%). What does this mean? The decades-long era of deflation has officially come to an end, and the most important "source of cheap funds" in the global financial markets is closing its doors.
More critical actions are on the way. In response to the pressure of rising domestic interest rates, Japan plans to sell $530 billion worth of U.S. stock assets. This is no small matter—once implemented, it will create a large-scale "liquidity withdrawal," making it difficult for global high-risk assets to escape unscathed.
How severe will this chain reaction be? Let's take a look at a few dimensions. First, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has already broken 2%, reaching a new high since 1999. This directly means that global capital relying on yen arbitrage must accelerate its return, and assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks will lose their most critical buyer support. Second, the Bank of Japan's policy orientation will inevitably shift from "diverging from the Federal Reserve" to "tightening in sync with the Federal Reserve," and the pace of global liquidity withdrawal may be much faster than expected. Finally, this pressure will quickly spread along the market transmission chain: the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries puts pressure on U.S. stocks, the volatility in U.S. stocks triggers liquidity exhaustion in high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and volatility rises across the board.
History textbooks tell us that once an economy that has been continuously supplying cheap liquidity to the world starts to reverse this flow, all trading strategies dependent on such arbitrage logic will face reevaluation. Whether in traditional financial markets or the cryptocurrency space, it is crucial to closely monitor the following signals: the Japanese central bank's statements on specific selling plans, how U.S. Treasury yields interact with the dollar index, and whether the outflow of spot trading from exchanges accelerates.
This global capital restructuring triggered by Japan has just begun; fastening your seatbelt is much more reliable than remedying the situation afterwards.
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LiquidityLarry
· 6h ago
Japan is really going to stir up the world this time, with a $530 billion dumping... we retail investors need to think about how to avoid it.
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PumpAnalyst
· 6h ago
Japan's 530 billion sell-off of US stocks means that the global market is about to turn around. Those who chased the price earlier will have to cut losses [thinking]
Once liquidity dries up, the crypto world will be the first to be hit. Are you still daydreaming?
The 10-year Treasury yield is already at 2%, and the bottom is still far away. Don't let the rebound trick you in, brothers.
The Fed tightening simultaneously means global tightening. This is not a joke, keep an eye on your wallet.
The yen arbitrage has gotten liquidated. What's next? Should we close all positions or buy the dip? That's the question.
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0xLuckbox
· 6h ago
Japan's sale of 530 billion USD directly reminds me of the lessons from last year's Carry Trade. How many leveraged positions will this liquidity withdrawal wipe out this time...
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SchrodingerAirdrop
· 6h ago
Japan's recent actions have directly impacted the livelihoods of arbitrage traders; we need to be cautious.
Recently, a significant turning point has emerged in the global financial markets — Japan's economic data has just set a 30-year record.
The CPI inflation rate has risen to 2.8%. This figure may seem ordinary, but its implications are astonishing: Japan has achieved "inflation surpassing" the United States for the first time since 1979 (the current rate in the U.S. is 2.7%). What does this mean? The decades-long era of deflation has officially come to an end, and the most important "source of cheap funds" in the global financial markets is closing its doors.
More critical actions are on the way. In response to the pressure of rising domestic interest rates, Japan plans to sell $530 billion worth of U.S. stock assets. This is no small matter—once implemented, it will create a large-scale "liquidity withdrawal," making it difficult for global high-risk assets to escape unscathed.
How severe will this chain reaction be? Let's take a look at a few dimensions. First, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has already broken 2%, reaching a new high since 1999. This directly means that global capital relying on yen arbitrage must accelerate its return, and assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks will lose their most critical buyer support. Second, the Bank of Japan's policy orientation will inevitably shift from "diverging from the Federal Reserve" to "tightening in sync with the Federal Reserve," and the pace of global liquidity withdrawal may be much faster than expected. Finally, this pressure will quickly spread along the market transmission chain: the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries puts pressure on U.S. stocks, the volatility in U.S. stocks triggers liquidity exhaustion in high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and volatility rises across the board.
History textbooks tell us that once an economy that has been continuously supplying cheap liquidity to the world starts to reverse this flow, all trading strategies dependent on such arbitrage logic will face reevaluation. Whether in traditional financial markets or the cryptocurrency space, it is crucial to closely monitor the following signals: the Japanese central bank's statements on specific selling plans, how U.S. Treasury yields interact with the dollar index, and whether the outflow of spot trading from exchanges accelerates.
This global capital restructuring triggered by Japan has just begun; fastening your seatbelt is much more reliable than remedying the situation afterwards.