#BTC资金流动性 The United States is about to reenact the "shutdown" script again. Trump just announced another one at the end of January, and there is only a little over a month until the temporary budget expires on January 30. In short, the 43-day shutdown in November did not actually solve the problem; it was just a makeshift "fire-fighting" measure using a temporary funding bill.

The crux of the matter remains the same: the Democrats want to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, or else 22 million Americans could see their healthcare costs double; the Republicans are determined to cut spending. Both sides are engaged in a political standoff, with little room for compromise. The last time the Democrats made a concession, they were criticized by voters as "betrayal," and this time they are even less willing to back down; the Republicans still need 60 votes for their bill, making it impossible to break the deadlock.

What is the current state of the American economy? The GDP growth rate is only 1.4%, inflation is stuck at 3.1%, and the unemployment rate has reached 4.6%. Isn't this a sign of stagflation? If there is really a shutdown, the historical lessons are there—there was a direct loss of 11 billion dollars from a 35-day shutdown, of which 3 billion can never be recovered. Last time, it caused 40 airports to paralyze and port goods to pile up like mountains.

How much impact will this have on us traders? The US dollar index has already recorded its largest drop in 9 years. Since the shutdown, fluctuations in US stocks and bonds will intensify, with a ripple effect directly pointing to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Those engaged in cross-border trade should pay even more attention; the last time the shutdown stalled the approval of import and export permits, and the Sino-US trade process is likely to be affected this time as well.

The crypto space is worth paying more attention to: After each past suspension was lifted, the crypto market usually experienced a rebound of 10%-15%, but this time is different—uncertainty has escalated, and short-term funds may first move towards stable assets, while some are waiting to position themselves in high-risk varieties at the bottom. The weakening of the dollar, the revaluation of risk assets, and changes in policy expectations are all reshaping the market rhythm. How core assets like $BTC and $ETH will perform depends on how the political cards are played here in the United States.

What is your judgment? Can the two parties reach a compromise at the last moment? Or will they have to go through the shutdown drama?