Why is it so difficult to make money in this Bitcoin cycle?

Looking back at the previous bull and bear cycles, the logic seems very clear – hold onto the top ten mainstream coins during a bear market, hold for about three years, and when the bull market arrives, you can earn considerable profits. But reality has proven otherwise. Following this approach so far has basically not made any money, and the bull market is already in its mid-phase.

The key lies in the macro-level changes. The liquidity injection in this round of the bull market has shown intermittent characteristics, with the real surge occurring between October 2023 and March 2024—when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was still at 5%, Bitcoin was around $28,000, and the Federal Reserve released about $1 trillion in liquidity. It was this wave of liquidity that initiated the main upward trend in the market.

Then the second wave of stimulus in February 2025 led to a phase of bull market after April. The first two rounds (and possibly even three rounds) of the rise are closely tied to the rhythm of liquidity injection.

The issue has surfaced: will there be more monetary easing in the future?

From a policy perspective, the answer is yes. According to the plan, there will indeed be more "money supply" in the near future, although the scale may not match the intensity of the round in 2021, but the pace of the money supply will certainly not be too gentle. One observation indicator is the RMB exchange rate—when it appreciates to around 6.6, the real money supply may be considered to have come to an end, and then it will enter a new round of interest rate hikes.

The main reason why this bull market is difficult to navigate is that the easing is not aggressive enough and the pace is not fast enough. The good news is that the intensity of liquidity injection will be increased in the future.