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📊 The truth behind the US November CPI data

The sudden data anomaly has drawn market attention. The annual CPI for November fell to 2.7%, far below the market expectation of 3.1%—this extent is indeed unusual. New York Fed President Williams pointed out the clues: technical factors are at play. Specifically, the interruption of surveys in October led to data gaps, combined with the peak of e-commerce promotions in the second half of November and the seasonal "zero inflation" calculation method, ultimately lowering the year-on-year reading.

The key point here is: Williams acknowledges that real inflation may be masked by data. He simultaneously signals that there is currently no need for interest rate hikes and points out that the trend of slowing inflation still exists. However, from a market perspective, rental prices and oil prices suggest the possibility of a rebound, and the release of new data in December will serve as a litmus test for this judgment. For global investors, this data conundrum could potentially rewrite the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, thereby affecting the direction of major asset classes.