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The U.S. inflation data for November surprised everyone; what exactly happened behind the scenes?

The recently announced CPI annual rate is only 2.7%, far below the market expectation of 3.1%—this discrepancy is quite large. New York Fed President Williams then explained: "Technical factors messed up the data." It turns out that the interruption of the survey in October led to the cancellation of that month's data, and by the second half of November, the promotional season combined with the "zero inflation" calculation method artificially pushed the reading down.

The key question has arisen - Williams bluntly stated that inflation may be masked, but he also said "there is no need to raise interest rates in the short term," while emphasizing that the trend of slowing inflation indeed exists. This sounds contradictory, but upon further reflection, it makes sense: the current data is inflated, and the true situation will be revealed in December.

What are the markets focusing on? The two variables of rent and oil prices are still holding back, and the data in December will become a barometer for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. This "data conundrum" is likely to change the direction of the entire interest rate hike cycle, profoundly impacting our asset allocation.