Analyst from Tom Lee's fund responds to the divergence: clients have different positioning and strategies, but remain optimistic about the market outlook.

According to Deep Tide TechFlow news, on December 21, Sean Farrell, the head of cryptocurrency strategy at Fundstrat, a fund under Tom Lee, responded to the “discrepancy in outlook with Tom Lee” by stating, "Fundstrat has multiple analysts, and their research frameworks and investment time horizons differ, aiming to meet the investment goals of various clients. Tom Lee primarily serves large asset management firms and investors who allocate 1%-5% of their assets to BTC and ETH, requiring a long-term perspective. My research is mainly aimed at high cryptocurrency investment portfolios (with cryptocurrency asset allocations of around 20% or more), employing a more aggressive trading strategy, and consistently outperforming the market through active rebalancing across different cycles.

My relatively cautious view for the first half of the year reflects risk management rather than a completely bearish stance. The current market pricing is almost perfect, but risks still exist (government shutdown, trade fluctuations, uncertainty in AI capital expenditures, changes in the Federal Reserve chairmanship, tightening high-yield bond spreads, low cross-asset volatility, etc.). Recently, the flow of funds has also shown divergence. Bitcoin is currently in a valuation “no man's land.” In the long run, with the entry of large brokerages, ETF demand should improve, but in the short term, it still faces pressures from original coin holders selling off, miner pressures, MSCI potentially removing MSTR, and fund redemptions.

My benchmark judgment: there may be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another pullback in the first half, providing more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. If my judgment is wrong, I prefer to wait for confirmation signals. For investors interested in this outlook, I still expect BTC and ETH to challenge new historical highs before the end of the year, thus ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and smaller bear market.

Previously reported, Tom Lee is bullish on BTC and ETH, but his company internally predicts a deep correction.