Fed Hammack: Inflation in November may have data collection distortion issues, and the neutral interest rate may be higher than generally expected.

On December 21, Fed's Hamak stated that the positive inflation data for November may be distorted due to data collection issues caused by the government shutdown in October and the first half of November, which underestimated the price growth over the past 12 months. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.7% year-on-year rise in the November CPI, the adjusted estimates for difficulties in data measurement brought it closer to the level of 2.9% or 3.0% that forecasters generally expected. In addition, Hamak's core concern regarding interest rate cuts is her view that the neutral interest rate level is higher than generally believed, and the economy itself has the momentum to maintain robust growth next year. The neutral interest rate cannot be directly observed but can be inferred from the economic conditions. ( Jin10 )