According to Glassnode data, as the largest expiration in the Bitcoin options market approaches, the spot price remaining within a narrow range creates a critical threshold for the market.

All eyes in the cryptocurrency market are on the historically significant expiration date of Bitcoin (BTC) options. Glassnode, known for its on-chain and derivatives market analyses, stated in its report that the current positioning and volatility signals provide important clues regarding price behavior.

According to Glassnode's analysis, participation in the options market has significantly slowed down in the past month. The decrease in trading volumes indicates a weakening belief in upward scenarios, while the continued demand for put options against downward risks is noteworthy.

The report emphasized that the implied volatility has decreased across all maturities. It was noted that the market is placing less premium on short-term hedges and leveraged bullish positions, while the ATM volatility has dropped to approximately 44 percent. This level corresponds to a double-digit decline compared to the previous period.

Downward risk continues to be priced in.
Glassnode stated that the 25-day skew ratio is still positive, indicating that put options are priced higher compared to call options. This view reveals that the perception of downside risk in the market is maintained and that it is far from the classic structure seen before a strong breakout.

Transfer operations and dealer effects are coming to the forefront.
In the analysis, it was stated that the 1-week volatility risk premium remained positive following the last FOMC meeting. This situation highlights strategies that sell volatility, while it was emphasized that as the year-end approaches, dealers' long gamma positions could pressure spot price movements.

According to Glassnode, the rapid growth of the Bitcoin options market over the past year makes this record expiration even more critical. The expiration in question could lead to a search for a new equilibrium in price behavior in the upcoming period by resetting positioning and dealer exposure.

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