#以太坊行情解读 $BTC $ETH $SUI

🔥The Federal Reserve's 9-3 split on interest rate cuts seems like a celebration, but there are undercurrents.

The minutes of the meeting on December 10 have clarified everything—9 votes in favor, 3 votes against, and a 25bp rate cut has been implemented. Powell's statement "the risk to employment is greater" directly overshadowed the voices of the three hawks: Bowman, Cook, and Waller. The latter's anger is evident: "This is purely a political compromise."

The market reaction is indeed crazy. Bitcoin has broken through 110,000, the S&P has surged, and gold keeps rising. But the data is starting to contradict this — non-farm payrolls were revised down by 818,000, while core PCE rebounded, leading hawks to fume at this data: "If I had known, I shouldn't have done it this way."

The most outrageous thing is the dot matrix chart. The divergence in interest rate expectations has set a historical record, with a difference of as much as 170 basis points in the interest rate forecast for 2026. Trump put pressure by posting three tweets in a row, and the dovish plan directly crushed the compromise plan, marking the most severe split situation since 2005.

💸 Market Snapshot: The US dollar has plummeted, allowing the RMB to surge, with $1.4 billion flowing into gold ETFs in a single day. However, there are hidden dangers behind the celebration - inflation expectations are quietly rising, with the derivatives market betting that the PCE will spike to 2.6% by 2026.

⚠️ Structural risks are accumulating. The credit bubble is expanding, private equity leverage has surged to new heights, and commercial real estate defaults have hit a ten-year high. Although foreign capital is flowing into the Chinese market, A-shares have shown a pattern of opening high and closing low, leaving investors with only emotional comfort.

What about the lives of ordinary people? While mortgage rates have dropped, housing prices have risen even more fiercely, and 62% of first-time homebuyers still cannot afford a home. The AI giants have consumed most of the capital, while the credit channels for small businesses have instead frozen.

📅49 days to go, the next FOMC is just around the corner. Powell said, "We only do what we believe is right at the moment," but the market is scoffing: the rate cut cycle is already dead, and the next black swan is brewing.