The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has landed, and the market originally expected a significant fall in Bitcoin, but that did not happen. Instead, Bitcoin has stabilized, and the market has gradually eased from the previously tense atmosphere, with people starting to discuss optimistic views like "Bitcoin has already weathered the most dangerous period." However, there is a concerning issue here—this emotional turnaround seems very complete, but in reality, it is quite fragile.

To put it simply, the current optimistic sentiment actually comes from a simple logic: the market originally speculated that the rate hike would be significant, but the Bank of Japan released a "gradual" tightening signal, and the extent was not as severe. This is what is called "expectation difference"—when the actual situation is somewhat better than expected, panic sentiment will naturally ease. Those investors who previously panicked and sold off are starting to reflect, and some are buying back Bitcoin, causing market sentiment to shift from panic to greed. It seems reasonable, right? But the key is that this emotional reversal is entirely based on short-term factors, and the long-term fundamentals are not there. Once the short-term factors dissipate, market sentiment will turn again.

What’s more striking is that the level of greed in the Bitcoin market has reached a certain extreme. According to data from the Alternative.me cryptocurrency sentiment index platform, the current Bitcoin market sentiment index has surged to 78, entering the "extreme greed" range. This level is close to the historical peak. Historical lessons tell us that whenever the market sentiment enters the "extreme greed" range, it often indicates that the market top is not far away. The arrival of a correction is usually just a matter of time.

In other words, the current upward trend is likely just a rebound, rather than a reversal of the trend. A greater risk may be building up, waiting for a trigger to ignite a reversal in market sentiment.