Everyone, to be honest, this recent market trend has been quite exhausting. Bitcoin has fallen from 126,000 to 89,000, and the fear index has slid all the way down to 23, indicating extreme panic. You could call it a crash, but the price stubbornly stays above 80,000 without dropping further; you could say it's a whipsaw, but this drop really hits home.

Both bulls and bears have compelling arguments. The bears have very solid evidence: the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by the largest margin in nearly 30 years, global liquidity is being drained, and leverage is being gradually cleaned up. How good can prices get? As for the bulls, they are not without confidence either— the Federal Reserve has stopped tightening and has begun to inject liquidity, traditional large institutions like Vanguard are quietly entering the market, and there are still a lot of people in the options market betting that Bitcoin will rebound to over 100,000.

The current market is like being torn by two forces of primal power repeatedly, yet on-chain data reveals an interesting signal: new buyers who entered the market in the last 1-3 months have a lower average cost than the old players who have been holding for 3-6 months. This situation has only occurred 9 times in history, making it extremely rare. What does it indicate? The chips are quietly flowing from those who are dominated by panic and trapped at high positions, slowly moving towards new forces that are more patient and have lower costs. At the same time, leveraged positions in the derivatives market are actively retreating, and the number of open contracts is continuously decreasing—this seems more like a "healthy detox" rather than a "sudden death market."

But here is an awkward point: both bulls and bears are actually trapped in the same huge risk trap. Your profits and your mindset are completely tied to a macro game that you cannot control at all. No matter which side you stand on, you are just "betting on the direction" rather than truly making decisions.