Recently, the non-ferrous metal market has been very volatile. Silver has soared from over 7000 at the beginning of the year to around 16000, definitely a doubling trend; gold has also kept pace, rising from 600 to just over 1000, with an increase of more than 50%; copper, aluminum, and tin have followed closely behind, reaching historical highs. The intensity of this rise is indeed worth studying carefully.

A simple review of the data makes it clear. Silver has risen nearly 100% this year, gold has risen over 50%, and other non-ferrous metals have generally broken through a 20% increase. The question arises—what exactly triggered this metal storm?

**Supply and demand imbalance has become the norm**

First, let's look at the most exaggerated silver situation. The global silver market is expected to face a supply gap of 95 million ounces (approximately 2,954 tons) in 2025, marking five consecutive years of under-supply. From 2021 to 2025, the cumulative gap is close to 820 million ounces. Why is there such a shortage? The core reason is the rapid expansion of the new energy industry. Silver has the best conductivity among metals, and it is indispensable in photovoltaics and electronic products. In 2024 alone, the global demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to reach a new high of 680 million ounces. Although manufacturers are researching the use of copper paste to replace silver paste, that is merely a drop in the bucket. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, by 2030, the solar energy sector alone may add 150 million ounces of silver demand annually, and the supply-demand gap will continue to widen.

**Imbalance in Gold-Silver Ratio Triggers Arbitrage**

Secondly, silver has become cheaper relative to gold. To understand this, one must grasp the concept of the gold-silver ratio—normally, 1 gram of gold can be exchanged for 50-70 grams of silver. However, in the earlier stage, gold rose too sharply, pushing the ratio to over 1:100, creating an arbitrage opportunity. Large funds sensed the chance and began to aggressively push up silver prices, attempting to bring the gold-silver ratio back to a reasonable level.

**Spot supply is extremely tight, and the short squeeze continues to heat up**

Finally, it's a game of funds. The holdings of major overseas silver ETFs rose from 24,957 tons in February to 28,484 tons in October, an increase of 14.13%. These ETFs are backed by physical silver, which means they continuously absorb spot silver from the market. The spot market is becoming increasingly tight, with monthly borrowing rates for silver from others even reaching 30%-40%. Short sellers without physical silver delivery are at risk of being squeezed at any time—surrender or go long, either way, the result is a continued surge in prices. This phenomenon has also occurred in the gold, copper, and tin markets, with silver being the most typical.

**Why did it only erupt now?**

Some may ask: The supply and demand mismatch has been going on for five years, so why is it only now that prices are soaring? It's understandable for silver and gold to rise in price, but why are industrial non-ferrous metals like copper and tin following suit? The answer lies in the special significance of this moment—time, supply and demand, liquidity, and market psychology are colliding perfectly at this point, resulting in this fierce upward trend.