Bitcoin's seasonal patterns have long suggested Q1 performs well, yet history doesn't always repeat itself. Take last year—Q4 looked promising on paper but delivered mixed results.

2025 painted quite a different picture. The year saw substantial capital inflows alongside significant treasury accumulation, yet these gains clashed hard with another force: established whale holders cashing out. Layer in the four-year cycle dynamics pushing downward pressure, and you get the messy, choppy conditions we actually experienced.

For Q1 2026, the playbook feels less certain. Those traditional seasonal tailwinds are real, but so are the structural headwinds from accumulated selling pressure and shifting whale positioning. Smart traders are watching multiple signals simultaneously—inflow trends, on-chain accumulation patterns, and whale movement—rather than relying on seasonal calendars alone.