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Employment data takes a big turn, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a dilemma

As soon as Powell's "interest rate hike cycle is over" rhetoric was released, the employment report dealt a heavy blow. The non-farm data was significantly revised — there was actually a net loss of 26,000 jobs in August, and the new jobs in September were only 108,000, far below expectations. Wall Street's immediate reaction: these preliminary figures should be viewed with a 30% discount.

The market reacted quickly and intensely. The expectation of interest rate cuts surged instantly, with the market pricing in a sharp increase in the probability of a rate cut in one month. This is a conundrum for Powell: cutting rates would be a slap in the face, appearing to undermine a hawkish stance; not cutting rates, on the other hand, poses the risk of economic recession. Inflation and employment, both sides are a cliff.

What's even more interesting is the political aspect. The weaker the economic data, the more favorable it is for certain political forces. The dollar fell in response, briefly dropping below the 98 level, and global asset valuations were re-priced accordingly. Risk assets like $ETH, $SUI, and $UNI often see a rebound opportunity when the dollar weakens.

The CPI data for the next two days will be crucial. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve's policy space will be further squeezed - having to both curb prices and guard against a downturn in employment. This situation has not fully unfolded yet.