The market direction has changed dramatically, and the pace is incredibly fast.
Last week, there were still bets on the Federal Reserve likely cutting interest rates in January, but that probability has been slashed to only 22%. In other words, a rate cut at the beginning of the year is basically off the table. Global funds are particularly tense, with all variables hinging on Powell's words—whether he says something "hawkish" or "dovish" can change the direction of the entire market in an instant.
What's more concerning is that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams recently sent a signal: the CPI data may have been severely underestimated, and the actual inflation pressure is much more severe than the surface numbers suggest. This means that the high interest rate environment may need to be maintained for a longer period. On the other hand, Trump is still pressuring the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. The tug-of-war between the White House and the Federal Reserve has made the market situation very complicated.
The current market is like a rubber band stretched to its limit. Any economic data release or a statement from Powell could completely rewrite that 22% probability within minutes, triggering a retaliatory rebound or decline in assets.
The key is, are you ready? If you are still foolishly fully invested in one direction, can you hold on if this string suddenly snaps? If you switch everything to stablecoins and wait, by the time the real rebound comes, you'll still have to go through the process of exchanging and depositing, and it will be too late.
The difference between advanced traders and beginners lies here. Experienced traders always allocate a portion of their funds as "flexible reserves," allowing them to respond quickly to opportunities without being adversely affected by heavy positions. This sense of balance is the key to surviving in this highly volatile market.
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RugPullSurvivor
· 12h ago
When Powell opens his mouth, I start to break out in a cold sweat.
Those with a Full Position will have to cry.
A 22% probability, and just like that, it's cut; people are numb.
The real way to live is with a flexible reserve; everything else is gambling.
I can't hold on anymore; this market is really unbearable.
Switching coins and waiting for a Rebound is too slow; by the time the Rebound comes, the good food is already cold.
Experts always keep a hand; why did I go all in?
Williams' statement is incredibly powerful; inflation is not that simple.
In the play between Trump and the Fed, retail investors are just spectators.
It's easy to talk about balance, but doing it requires blood and tears to pay tuition.
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OnChainDetective
· 12h ago
Behind the 22% probability, there must be something that large investors know that we don't.
Williams's words sound very suspicious. CPI data "seriously underestimated"? Who changed the numbers? We need to look at the on-chain large transfer records to believe it.
Every word that Powell says is worth billions, but the key is—who has already laid out their plans before he opened his mouth? That's the secret to making money.
Full position equals giving away money, but switching entirely to stablecoins is too cowardly... The problem is, at the moment of a true rebound, institutional whales must have already been secretly accumulating.
Now is not the time to look at reports; we need to focus on how the wallet addresses are moving.
The market direction has changed dramatically, and the pace is incredibly fast.
Last week, there were still bets on the Federal Reserve likely cutting interest rates in January, but that probability has been slashed to only 22%. In other words, a rate cut at the beginning of the year is basically off the table. Global funds are particularly tense, with all variables hinging on Powell's words—whether he says something "hawkish" or "dovish" can change the direction of the entire market in an instant.
What's more concerning is that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams recently sent a signal: the CPI data may have been severely underestimated, and the actual inflation pressure is much more severe than the surface numbers suggest. This means that the high interest rate environment may need to be maintained for a longer period. On the other hand, Trump is still pressuring the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. The tug-of-war between the White House and the Federal Reserve has made the market situation very complicated.
The current market is like a rubber band stretched to its limit. Any economic data release or a statement from Powell could completely rewrite that 22% probability within minutes, triggering a retaliatory rebound or decline in assets.
The key is, are you ready? If you are still foolishly fully invested in one direction, can you hold on if this string suddenly snaps? If you switch everything to stablecoins and wait, by the time the real rebound comes, you'll still have to go through the process of exchanging and depositing, and it will be too late.
The difference between advanced traders and beginners lies here. Experienced traders always allocate a portion of their funds as "flexible reserves," allowing them to respond quickly to opportunities without being adversely affected by heavy positions. This sense of balance is the key to surviving in this highly volatile market.