#大户持仓动态 $ZEC $SUI $UNI

[The curtain rises on policy reversal] Non-farm data shows "hard landing" signals surfacing.

The Federal Reserve's tough stance seems somewhat pale in the face of weak employment data. Powell just stated that the rate hike cycle has ended, only to be contradicted by the significantly revised employment report.

What does the data really say?

In August, the number of employed shifted from an increase to a net loss of 26,000; the number of new jobs added in September was significantly cut to 108,000, far below the expected 150,000. What's even more disheartening is that Wall Street's confidence in this preliminary figure has fallen below 70%. This is not just an adjustment of numbers, but a repricing by the market of the fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

How fast is the market reaction?

The expectation of interest rate cuts has directly reversed. From the previous "no hope for this year," it suddenly shifted to "at least two interest rate cuts next year, likely starting in January." The US dollar index promptly fell below the 98 mark, which means that the pricing logic of global assets is being reshaped.

What is Powell's dilemma?

It seems to be a choice between two options, but in reality, it is an unsolvable deadlock. If interest rates are cut, the hawkish persona will collapse, and the risk of inflation rebounding will be difficult to eliminate; if rates are not cut, the signal of economic decline has already been lit, and recession fears will further depress the valuations of risk assets. What makes it more tricky is that the CPI data is set to be released in two days—if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve will be completely caught in a dilemma.

Who benefits the most from this situation?

When economic data deteriorates and political pressure rises, the independence of the Federal Reserve is bound to be challenged. This is precisely the situation that some political figures are pleased to see.

What should we pay attention to next?

Data fog, chaotic policy signals, and the undercurrents of political games — the surge in market volatility has become a foregone conclusion. As the most sensitive risk assets, cryptocurrencies such as $ZEC, $SUI, and $UNI will be directly pressured or benefit from this round of policy expectation reshaping. The key is to discern the direction: when the tide goes out, only assets with real fundamental support can survive.