It was indeed shocking to see that stablecoin report from JPMorgan. People in the circle have been boasting that the scale of stablecoins could reach 2-4 trillion by 2028, but they directly provided a conservative estimate - at most 500-600 billion. The gap is quite large, and it's worth seriously pondering the logic behind it.

First, let's look at the current situation. This year, stablecoins have indeed grown rapidly, and the total scale has already surpassed 308 billion. The number is not small, but we must be clear about one thing: this growth mainly occurs within the internal circulation of the crypto ecosystem. If we flip through the accounts, what are people using stablecoins for? To make turnover in exchanges, leverage for trading contracts, and arbitrage in decentralized finance. Are there any real scenarios for daily payments and cross-border transfers? Almost none. In other words, this is more like a self-prosperity within the circle, and the outside world hasn't really intervened. This also explains why the trillion-dollar expectation is hard to establish—the demand foundation is still not solid enough.

There are three key variables to watch in the coming years.

First is the direction of cross-border payments. Stablecoins do have advantages in cross-currency and cross-regional circulation, but compliance barriers remain. Regulatory authorities in various countries are observing, and scaling up for implementation requires overcoming numerous policy and technical challenges.

Secondly, there is the impact of traditional finance. More and more banks are now launching tokenized deposit products, which essentially use traditional financial instruments to create stablecoins, and they come with inherent compliance and trust advantages. This will divert some market demand.

Finally, do not overlook the possibility of further tightening of regulations. If stablecoins are included in a stricter financial regulatory framework, the currently rampant growth model will be significantly altered. In the short term, it may suppress growth, but in the long term, it could make the industry healthier.