I found the recent interest rate hike decision by the Bank of Japan quite interesting. The policy interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high, but the market's reaction was completely contrary to conventional logic.
Many people have been waiting for this news, and the market has long been psychologically prepared. A 25 basis point move is completely within the expected range, with no surprises. The key is that when this "shoe" finally dropped, it became a moment of relief for the market. Just look at the data — the Nikkei 225 index rose directly by 1.28% after the decision, and this is the best proof.
The performance of Bitcoin here is more interesting. According to historical patterns, every time the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin experiences a drop of 20%-30%. Therefore, before the decision, the fear and greed index in the crypto market had fallen to "extreme fear". What was the result? After the announcement, Bitcoin actually rebounded. Many people in the circle realized that the real rules of the game may have changed.
The most outrageous thing is the performance of the yen. According to common logic, a rate hike by the Central Bank should boost the currency's value, right? But after the rate hike, the yen actually weakened against the dollar, falling from 155.92 all the way down to the 156-157 range. This completely breaks the traditional economic logic.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, candidly stated at a press conference that even after the interest rate hike, Japan's real interest rate remains "significantly negative," and the financial environment will continue to remain accommodative to support economic activity. In other words, the extent of this interest rate hike is actually quite limited, and the true tone of the accommodative policy has not changed. With this signal being released, the market naturally has little to fear.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
14 Likes
Reward
14
6
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
GateUser-74b10196
· 12h ago
Is the interest rate hike actually Favourable Information? I need to think about this logic carefully, it feels like the market has already fully digested the expectations.
The depreciation of the yen is a bit ridiculous, but after hearing what the president said, it does seem to have a loose underlying tone, no wonder no one is panicking.
Is this wave going to trick some stop loss orders again?
View OriginalReply0
rekt_but_resilient
· 12h ago
Haha, what the president said is basically meaningless, the interest rate hike is just a pretext.
View OriginalReply0
Whale_Whisperer
· 12h ago
The recent move by the Bank of Japan is truly a "paper tiger interest rate hike," as the market has long seen through it.
View OriginalReply0
LiquiditySurfer
· 12h ago
Ueda is really the "interest rate magician"; raising rates is like not raising them at all, and the market actually breathes a sigh of relief. I really admire this logic.
View OriginalReply0
SudoRm-RfWallet/
· 12h ago
The recent actions of the Bank of Japan are indeed just a smokescreen; the interest rate hike is actually just for show.
View OriginalReply0
PermabullPete
· 12h ago
It's just pretending again, raising rates by 25bp is the same as not raising them, the Bank of Japan is just a paper tiger.
I found the recent interest rate hike decision by the Bank of Japan quite interesting. The policy interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high, but the market's reaction was completely contrary to conventional logic.
Many people have been waiting for this news, and the market has long been psychologically prepared. A 25 basis point move is completely within the expected range, with no surprises. The key is that when this "shoe" finally dropped, it became a moment of relief for the market. Just look at the data — the Nikkei 225 index rose directly by 1.28% after the decision, and this is the best proof.
The performance of Bitcoin here is more interesting. According to historical patterns, every time the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin experiences a drop of 20%-30%. Therefore, before the decision, the fear and greed index in the crypto market had fallen to "extreme fear". What was the result? After the announcement, Bitcoin actually rebounded. Many people in the circle realized that the real rules of the game may have changed.
The most outrageous thing is the performance of the yen. According to common logic, a rate hike by the Central Bank should boost the currency's value, right? But after the rate hike, the yen actually weakened against the dollar, falling from 155.92 all the way down to the 156-157 range. This completely breaks the traditional economic logic.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, candidly stated at a press conference that even after the interest rate hike, Japan's real interest rate remains "significantly negative," and the financial environment will continue to remain accommodative to support economic activity. In other words, the extent of this interest rate hike is actually quite limited, and the true tone of the accommodative policy has not changed. With this signal being released, the market naturally has little to fear.