ETH is at the key position of 2950-3000, and I think there are several core logics worth following.

From an on-chain perspective, the exchange inventory has decreased by 120,000 coins in the last 7 days, while the amount held in cold wallets has increased from 16.28 million to 16.4 million, indicating that large holders are continuously accumulating. This suggests that strong players are positioning at low levels. The leverage aspect is also interesting—open interest has increased by 8.4% in the last 24 hours, with 61.7 million short positions being liquidated. The funding rate has just flipped from negative to 0.0042%, which means that bullish momentum is building, and a large bullish candlestick could trigger a chain liquidation.

The technical aspects are worth examining more closely. The daily RSI is at 45.9, on the edge of oversold territory, with the lower Bollinger Band support at 2943. The 1-hour K-line MACD has just generated a golden cross signal. As long as it does not fall below 2900, the entire structure remains intact.

The upper pressure is in the range of 3007 and 3025. Once it breaks through and increases in volume, FOMO buying will push it towards 3150-3180. Conversely, if it fails to hold 2900, it's better to cut positions and wait.

My strategy is: I have already scalped at the spot price of 2950, with leverage controlled within 3 times, and the stop loss set at 2900. Once it breaks through 3030, I will increase my position, aiming for above 3100. For friends trading contracts, add more when it retraces to 2930-2950, don't chase the high.

Don't forget the impact of this week's CPI data; if it's dovish, it will be rocket fuel. In the long term, the technological upgrades of ETH, the tokenization of RWA, and the formation of the ETH/BTC head and shoulders pattern all point to longer-term opportunities; even 7600 isn't a dream. However, in the short term, we still need to respect the data, with risk management taking precedence.