Next week, the global market is going to change. On the surface, it's the calm of the Christmas holiday, but behind the scenes, the dark undercurrents of liquidity have already begun. The real variable may come from Tokyo, Japan — last week, the Central Bank of Japan made a significant decision that could set off a chain reaction.

Everyone who is trading should stay alert this week. This could be the final sprint phase of 2025, where both risks and opportunities will be amplified.

The focus of the market has quietly shifted. The biggest event next week is not in Washington, but in Tokyo. The speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan has now become the "tightening spell" for the entire market.

Last week, the Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points. What does this action mean? For the first time in thirty years, the "cheap yen" channel has truly closed. The foundation of global arbitrage trading is starting to show cracks. Investors are now speculating: what will happen next? Will there be another rate hike?

If the hawkish stance continues, the yen will continue to appreciate, and a large amount of cheap funds borrowed in yen for arbitrage must be withdrawn. The US stock market, US bonds, and crypto assets—markets that rely on Liquidity support—are all facing synchronized withdrawal pressures. This is not a problem for a single market, but rather a cross-asset, indiscriminate selling chain reaction. Once it begins, it is difficult to isolate a particular area.

On the other hand, what if the attitude softens? The market may take a breather for a while, but don’t take it seriously. It's like a ship that is already leaking water, and someone tells you not to worry, but where are the lifeboats? The short-term calm is merely building up energy for the next round of bigger fluctuations.

There is another key factor - the US has a holiday this week, and traders are leaving in large numbers. Market depth is sharply declining, and any sudden news or data will be amplified. A slight disturbance could trigger a flash crash or a surge. The crypto market has always been full of surprises, and this week's surprises could be particularly thrilling.

The real test begins next week.